Dubai Real Estate Data Watch
Vol.04 · January – July 2026 · Dubai Land Department Public Transaction Data
125,239 transactions · Jan – Jul 2026
Vol.04 examines July’s "stability illusion" in Dubai real estate. Volume looks steady — but that steadiness rests on just two things: a surge in mortgages and one developer’s (Azizi) off-plan pipeline. Strip those two pillars away and the market’s real footing shows.
The in-depth analysis below (developer concentration, K-shaped split, recovery watch) reflects Vol.03 (Jan–Jun 2026). The latest July data is reflected in the headline metrics and the monthly-trend and latest-month tables.
Dubai didn’t get cheaper. It stopped.
Most June coverage says "transactions are back to April levels." The number checks out — 464.5 daily-average vs. April’s 467.9. Peel one layer at a time, though, and three illusions surface in sequence. Each is only visible after the previous one is removed.
Volume Illusion
Peel it: −26.2% — the entire "recovery" came from a single developer (Azizi)
Median Illusion
Peel it: price per sqm is only −0.7%. What fell was not price — it was unit size
Average Illusion
Peel it: the market split in opposite directions — value areas +18%, luxury areas −11%
In one sentence
Dubai didn’t get cheaper. It stopped. And Dubai is not a single market.
Part 1 · What happened in June
One developer made June’s numbers
13,935 homes changed hands in Dubai in June. 3,779 (27.1%) came from a single developer, Azizi Developments. Off-plan only, the share climbs to 36.5% — more than one in three. As recently as April, it was under 2%.
Azizi share of off-plan · 2026
Unit: %
Source: DLD registered transactions · 3,689 of 10,096 June off-plan sales are Azizi. The share jumped 20× in two months.
June off-plan top projects (Top 8)
| Project | Units | Median (AED) | Median area (㎡) | AED / sqm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZIZI VENICE 14Azizi | 722 | 660K | 34.0 | 17,862 |
| ELTIERA VIEWS | 274 | 2.26M | 76.5 | 28,250 |
| AZIZI VENICE 12Azizi | 235 | 720K | 36.8 | 18,124 |
| AZIZI VENICE 6Azizi | 193 | 740K | 32.9 | 21,664 |
| AZIZI VENICE 9Azizi | 182 | 710K | 32.5 | 20,864 |
| AZIZI MILAN HEIGHTSAzizi | 169 | 600K | 31.6 | 18,886 |
| ARIAN BY AZIZIAzizi | 162 | 600K | 32.6 | 17,820 |
| DAMAC LAGOONS – VALENCIA | 143 | 1.12M | 65.2 | 18,687 |
Key point. Azizi’s studios sell at 17,800 – 21,600 AED/㎡. The Dubai-wide market median for the same period is 18,420 AED/㎡ — nearly identical. Azizi didn’t sell cheap. It sold small. The market didn’t get more affordable; a naturally-affordable product flooded the sample.
Part 3 · What really happened
Dubai is not one market — a K-shaped split
We held unit size constant (55 – 95㎡, like-for-like) and compared January vs. June price per sqm by area. Cheaper areas rose the most; expensive areas fell the most. Same city, same month, opposite directions.
Δ Price per sqm · Jan → Jun 2026 · 55 – 95㎡ apartments
Median comparison
10M+ AED sales (Jan → Jun)
1,098 → 380
−65%
50M+ AED sales (Jan → Jun)
72 → 40
−44%
10M+ share (Jan → Jun)
9.38% → 2.73%
Capital exit
Stand-off
Prices dropped 11% but transactions vanished 65%. This isn’t "sellers cut prices to move inventory." It’s "sellers cut prices a little and still nothing moves" — sellers hold firm, buyers stay away. A stand-off. CBUAE policy rate was flat at 3.65% through H1, so rates aren’t the cause.
This Vol.02 conclusion was reversed by June data
Vol.02 argued that flat broker licensing meant "low competition, an entry opportunity." June licenses rebounded to 798 (+18%)— but transactions per broker actually shrank. Competition didn’t ease; it intensified. Vol.02 wasn’t wrong — it was one month short.
Market vs. Industry — refreshed through June
After the late-February geopolitical shock, transactions recovered in April, dipped in May with Eid holidays, and returned to April levels in June at 464.5 / day. Broker licensing also rebounded to 798. The real question is whether the recovery is genuine— see the "Volume Illusion" section above for the full read.
June daily-average sales
464.5 / day
≈ April level (467.9) — but 27.1% came from Azizi alone
Recovery? see aboveNew broker licenses (June)
798 (+18%)
Rebounded — but deals per broker fell
Competition intensifiedDLD total transactions
107,055
Jan – Jun 2026 cumulative
Data coverageMonthly daily-average sales transactions
Unit: transactions / day
Late-Feb shock → March cooling → April recovery → May Eid gap → June back to April level
* May: raw figure (331.6) reflecting the Eid al-Adha public-holiday registration gap (May 23 – 31). June has no public holidays, so it serves as a clean baseline.
Market recovery vs. industry stagnation
Left axis: daily-average sales · Right axis: new broker licenses
Transactions recovered Apr → Jun; June licensing rebounded (+18%). But rebounding brokers share a stalled deal pool, so per-broker output actually fell — a different picture from Vol.02.
Data interpretation note
June’s 464.5 nearly matches April (467.9), but 27.1% came from Azizi alone. Strip Azizi out and April → June is −26.2%. The recovery may not be a recovery — it may be one developer’s campaign. The "Volume Illusion" section above peels back each of the three illusions.
H1 2026 · Affordability Map
Price-per-sqm Affordability Map
H1 2026 (Jan – Jun) residential apartments, median price per sqm (AED) by area. The spread between premium and value areas is about 3.9×.
Monthly View
Monthly Sales Trend (Jan–Jul 2026)
January – July 2026 · Dubai Land Department Sales Data
Trend view: how Dubai sales activity moved from January through July. This shows the surface pattern — steady volume — while Vol.04's reading points to what holds it up underneath.
Monthly Sales Trend
Sales transactions, total value, and ready vs. off-plan mix by month.
Early-Year Read (Q1)
Sales activity increased sharply from January to February, then moderated in March. February showed the highest sales transaction count and total sales value in Q1, while March remained above January in transaction count but lower in total sales value.
This suggests that monthly transaction activity and capital concentration can move differently. Q1 trend data should be read together with area-level rankings and off-plan vs ready mix.
Top Areas (Jan–Jul)
Top 10 areas by cumulative Jan–Jul 2026 sales transactions, with total value and unit mix.
Latest Monthly Momentum
Month-over-month change for the latest available month (July 2026 vs. June 2026), ranked by transaction growth.
Reading the Data
Market Interpretation
Principles for reading the market data
01
February Was the Strongest Month in Q1
February recorded the highest sales transaction count and total sales value in Q1 2026, suggesting stronger market concentration compared with January and March.
02
March Remained Active, But With Lower Capital Concentration
March sales transactions remained above January, but total sales value was lower than February. This indicates that transaction activity and capital movement can tell different stories.
03
Off-plan Activity Is a Key Signal
Several high-volume areas show strong off-plan activity. This may reflect project launches, investor appetite, or development-driven transaction patterns.
04
Count and Value Must Be Read Separately
Areas with high transaction count are not always the same areas with the highest total value. Liquidity and capital concentration should be interpreted as separate signals.
05
Premium Signals Need Caution
Average transaction value can be affected by ultra-luxury transactions, low transaction counts, or grouped deals. Premium signals should be used as screening indicators, not final conclusions.
Note. These insights are early market observations based on public transaction data and should be validated with additional market research, local context, and expert review.
July 2026 Snapshot
July 2026 Detailed Market Snapshot
Single-month dataset summary
The monthly trend shows the broader movement through July, while July rankings provide a detailed view of the latest loaded month.
Total Raw Transactions
Sales Transactions
Total Sales Value
Sales Areas
Sales Only
Top 10 Areas by Transaction Count
Where sales activity was most frequent
Sales Only
Top 10 Areas by Total Value
Where capital movement was concentrated
Sales Only
Premium Area Signal
Highest average transaction values
Note. Premium Area Signal is based on average transaction value. Areas with low transaction counts may be affected by outliers, portfolio deals, or ultra-luxury transactions. Use this signal as a screening indicator, not as a standalone ranking.
All Transactions
Full Market View
All Transactions includes Sales, Mortgage, and Gifts. Sales Only is better for understanding actual market sales movement.
Transparency
Data Source & Methodology
A short summary — full methodology on a dedicated page.
Source
Dubai Land Department public transaction data
Dataset
Jan – Jun 2026 Transactions · 107,055 rows
Method
Raw rows preserved, Sales Only filters transaction_type = Sales, summaries generated in Supabase.
Stability Illusion
Steady on the surface — held up by just two things.
Jan – Jul 2026 DLD 125,239-row analysis · July volume looks steady, but it rests on just two pillars — a mortgage surge (+63%, AED 17.1B) and one developer’s (Azizi) off-plan pipeline (25% of off-plan value, 34% of count) · 10M+ AED sales −64% · Palm Jumeirah −13.7%.
The full report is delivered as a tailored briefing, not a public download.
Volume Illusion — Dubai didn’t get cheaper. It stopped.
Dubai Resilience Watch — Capital has returned, but people are watching from the sidelines
Custom Intelligence
Need a custom Dubai market intelligence report?
We prepare custom UAE market intelligence reports tailored to your sector, entry timeline, and questions.